Friday, June 16, 2017

Pacific Tide Gauge Charts Show No Acceleration in Sea Level Rise

Californians are constantly bombarded with apocalyptic articles on sea level rise. A reporter, Sarah J. Black, for our local weekly newspaper, the Independent Coast Observer, had a very long article, "Studies show climate change could transform Mendonoma (Mendocino and Sonoma counties)," in their June 9, 2017 issue. In a section on sea levels, the ICO averted that: "The 20th Century saw sea levels rise at 1.2 to 1.7 mm per year, and those rates doubled after 1990, 'and the rise continues to accelerate,' researchers found.

"Currently rates are at 3.4 mm per year,' greater than anytime over the past thousand years,' the report reads."

Concerning the 3.4mm/year,  I had previously looked at 108 tide gauge records worldwide, and found a mean of 0.9mm/year and median of 1.1mm/year. Seventy-three of the records were at 1.8mm/year or less, and only 10 at 3.4mm/year or more. The average length of each tide gauge record was 90 years.

Besides my study using readily available resources open to all on the internet, a Hebrew University of Jerusalem study (https://tinyurl.com/y8u9983s) found mean sea levels rising by 1mm/year. For 35 percent of tide gauges, sea levels rose on average by 3.8mm/year. However, sea levels were stable for 61 percent of tide gauges, and fell on average by almost 6mm/year for 4 percent of tide gauges.


NOAA keeps records on 199 tide gauges which have been active this century. The average sea level rise rate is 1.08 mm/year for that set of gauges – one third of the claimed University of Colorado 3.2mm/year trend. Eighty-six percent of the tide gauges show sea level rise slower than 3.2mm/year.

Sea level, according to the GRACE gravitational anomaly satellites, has been falling (Peltier et al., 2009). During the eight years of ENVISAT’s operation, from 2004-2012, sea level rose at a not very scary 1.3 inches per century, or 0.33 mm/year.

Nicola Scafetta of Duke University found that sea level is subject to 60-year cycles and concludes that the human impact on sea level is too small and is statistically insignificant.

Another study found primarily that unsustainable groundwater use contributed a sea-level rise of about 0.77mm /year between 1961 and 2003.

Armed with all these studies, including the US government NOAA one, showing sea level rise at a rate less than a third of the rate tied by the ICO, I then decided to look for signs of acceleration in rates. Again, the NOAA provided convincing proof that they were not in the form of tide gauge graphs for cities worldwide. I selected twenty-five tide gauges scattered over the pacific, and found only two that had rates higher than 3.4mm/year. 

I have posted all twenty-five charts below for two purposes. One: each chart shows the rate of sea level rise in mm per year for its location. Two: you can visually determine for each chart if there is a doubling of the rate after 1990, as claimed in the report cited by the ICO. There is none. If you doubt this, look closely at each straight line fitted to the observations. A doubling after 1990 would appear as a cluster of observations above the line, not as observations both above and below the line.

The San Francisco chart below is interesting at several levels. It is the longest tide gauge record in the Western Hemisphere, began in 1854. Its highest level was third-four years ago in 1983, over two inches higher than in 2015, and 2016 is lower than 2015. Does it look like the rate of sea level rise doubled after 1990? 































Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Merry Christmas 2016

Procrastination is the thief of time, but better late than never.

Since the United States is swimming in the Sea of Rationalizations, I thought that it's about time to brush off a few cliches and jump right in to test the water.

First, our life is a bowl of cherries. We empathize and realize that's not the case for everyone; never has been, never will be. Still, the world is in better shape than it has ever been - less warfare and killing, better health and nutrition, and vast reduction in poverty. It's still not perfect; never has been, never will be. But we're grateful and happy for its progress. The glass is more than half full!

2016 was a busy year for these two retirees. The biggest, almost all-consuming activity, has been Alice's soon-to-be finished (ready for an editor and publisher) memoir, The Lady with Balls, her account of founding and growing a business in the then male-dominated garbage recycling industry. It's suspenseful, poignant, thought provoking, sometimes sexy, often humorous, and thoroughly readable. Alice is already contemplating which of today's screen stars could best portray her on the big screen, and later in the sit-com (situation comedy for those of us who don't watch TV). Alice has made writing The Lady with Balls a full-time job for the past two years, and her hard work will be rewarded, as sure as God made little green apples, and it rains in Indianapolis in the summertime.

The past year hasn't been all hard work. Alice treated her daughters, their husbands, and five grandchildren to an all-expenses-paid ten-day family vacation in Cuba.


Savannah and Josie live it up in our Havana house (thanks to Airbnb.com)
(Click on each photo for an enlarged view)


At our Havana house

 Jeanette and Savannah get around in style!

So do the rest of us
 Take your pick
A real walk down memory lane
Kieran, Kevin, Me, Daniel, Debbie, Alice, Jeanette, Josie, Joe, Jack, and Savannah
In Trinidad

All eleven of us arrived at the Havana airport on the 1st of April. In what is perhaps a first for such a large group, we didn't use a tour company, and did all the planning and making reservations ourselves (actually, Alice's daughters and their families did almost all of the work, and Alice funded their efforts).

Sharing Havana with Fidel

We roamed Havana for several days, then toured Vinales, the Bay of Pigs, Cienfuegos, and Trinidad.


Among many highlights were the wonderful meals we enjoyed at private homes and restaurants (a welcome contrast to the poorly prepared ones at government-run resorts). The crème de la crème (we thought) was dinner at a private home in Vinales that featured rock lobster tails, chicken, and many tasty side dishes. But then in Trinidad we celebrated Alice's birthday (three weeks late) at a delightful paladar (private restaurant), Restaurante Museo.

Restaurante Museo, Trinidad



Alice's birthday dinner 

Dancing the night away!

Again lots of rock lobster tails, beautiful colonial decor, an entertaining band, and dancing with the young host and hostess (and with each other, of course). 


 Kevin helps keep the memory of Hugo Chavez alive (in Cuba, anyway)

Josie with the ubiquitous Che

I had to show the Cubans how to do Cuban music right. They caught on quickly.



On our return, inspired by performing in Jekyll & Hyde, The Musical, last year, I coupled my limited talent and almost nonexistent acting experience with an abundance of enthusiasm and was a drag queen and cafe manager for six performances in La Cage aux Folles at the Gualala Arts Center, and various roles (political committeeman, Senator from Massachusetts, reporter, policeman, and perhaps others) in three performances of Gershwin's Of Thee I Sing at the Point Arena Theater. 


74-year old Drag Queen

The closest thing to a compliment I received for my female impersonation was a comment in our local paper: "nice legs". Woody Allen said that 80% of success is showing up, but then someone else said that some people shouldn't show up. Either way, I sure had fun.

Vulcan Wire's Christmas Party
(click on picture to enlarge)
(For the story of Alice founding Vulcan, please click here)

In March we go to Cabo San Lucas, then to La Paz for 15 days on a small cruise ship for snorkeling and whale watching in the Bay of Cortez, back to Cabo, then home. After our two trips before Cuba, Antarctica and the Arctic, it will be nice to leave the parkas, sweaters, and boots behind and pack modest swimsuits and plenty of sun screen. 

Feliz Navidad y feliz año nuevo!


Monday, August 15, 2016

Larry "Fact Checker" Jacobs

Larry “Fact Checker” Jacobs challenged as my opinion studies by the Congressional Research Service and The Wall Street Journal reporting that “(At) an annual average rate of 2.1% growth since the end of the recession, (this is) the weakest pace of any expansion since at least 1949.” (http://tinyurl.com/htesk9m)

Forbes Magazine noted the same earlier (8/1/12), as had Investor’s Business Daily (12/31/15).

Mr. Jacobs, the Washington Times agrees with you that the stock market has done very well, although: “The stock market closed down for 2015 reversing one of the few positive accomplishments under the Barack Obama presidency. This has been a pretty prosperous time for the top two percent. For most Americans though — not so much.

"A new report from Sentier Research based on Census data finds that median household income of $56,700 at the end of 2015 stood exactly where it was adjusted for inflation at the end of 2007.”

“Our middle class is shrinking. Our poor families are becoming poorer, and 70 percent of us are earning the same or less than we were 12 years ago. We need new leadership.” Former Democrat governor Martin O’Malley.

Concerning the administration’s happy talk about unemployment: “What they forgot to tell you is that statistic doesn’t include those people who have given up looking for work, those people who are working part time. Add it all together and real unemployment is over 10 percent.” Senator Bernie Sanders.

Based on the Obama administration’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Democrat economic advisor and fund raiser Leo Hindery says the real unemployment rate in America is 12.1 percent.

Mr. Jacobs, your fact checking remains abominable (ICO 4/25/14), when you claimed a marijuana plant used less than a gallon of water/day, when experts agreed they consume 6 to 15 gallons/day.


You still can’t hold water.