The climate models have no clothes.
They have no predictive ability. The proof that they don’t is in the
observations of what has happened compared to model predictions. Warming is at
a standstill. So is sea level rise. Glaciers in Glacier Bay retreated ten times
more from 1780 to 1912 as 1912 to present. Warming still precedes CO2
increases. The “hot spot” ain’t there. Severe weather is not as severe as it
used to be. A review of cycles of glaciation and warming during the past
500,000 years show Earth is now in what is established as long periods of
glaciation and short inter-glacials.
Ocean pH was 0.8 units lower and
atmospheric CO2 was five times higher one hundred million years ago (when
marine invertebrates had already been established and successful for over four
hundred million years). Recent studies show that some marine invertebrates do
better in higher acidity, and that models using strong acids have led to
incorrect conclusions about increased ocean acidity. Since very little CO2
absorbed in water becomes carbonic acid, it has very little effect on pH anyway
Between 1751 and 1994 surface ocean pH is estimated to have decreased from
approximately 8.25 to 8.14 – since we have many studies that show the warming
ending the Little Ice Age began about three hundred years ago, the relationship
between current warming, CO2, and ocean acidification seems specious. Since CO2
is released to the atmosphere as oceans warm, there is a disconnect between
oceans warming and atmospheric CO2 being absorbed by the oceans. It would
appear more likely that oceans would have absorbed CO2 and created more
carbonic acid during the Little Ice Age than during the warming that followed.
Since atmospheric warming following the Little Ice Age would have preceded
ocean warming, a timeline of decreasing pH over three hundred years ago makes
more sense.
But back to models. If the models
were right, US temperature would have increased at least three times the 1
degree F since 1900 (with most of the increase in the 1930′s). Sea levels would be up more than 6 inches since 1999,
instead of less than one inch. Major hurricanes would be hitting the US
annually, instead of none in over 3 years. Texas temperatures would be up more
than the observed 0.04 degree F since 1884. Or to put it simply, the models
would not be so crappy at predicting the future, or in explaining the past.
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