The upcoming release of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) has unleashed Chicken Littles
that would have overfilled Petaluma when it was the “Chicken Capital of the
World”. Editorial cartoons in both the San Francisco Chronicle and the Santa
Rosa Press Democrat featured a “climate change denier” being engulfed by waves
of global warming catastrophes. However, much of IPCC AR5 has already been
leaked, and it is stealthily scaling back its prognostications from six years
ago of the sensitivity of temperature increases to the doubling of atmospheric
CO2. It now contains hints that previous certainties are now not quite so
certain, inspired no doubt by the lack of significant warming for the past 17
years.
I had already analyzed in my last letter the evidence of
slowing sea level rise that can be determined by looking at the 159-year San
Francisco tide gauge record. At its current rate of 3.22 inches of sea level rise
per century, it will take almost 11,000 years to hit the 36-inch increase that
“experts” expect by 2100 (and that some expect by 2050). That would require an
immediate increase from just over three inches per century to over three inches
per decade. Temperature would have to increase immediately to above the highest
IPCC AR5 projections not expected until after 2100.
Rolly Coombs, electrical power generation expert, noted a
recent Thomas Elias ICO article where Elias mistakenly wrote that two Southern
California solar installations would generate one-third of the power of a
nuclear plant. Rolly observed that they would only produce 9% of Diablo
Canyon’s 18,566 GwH/year, and I verified that by comparing their 642MW maximum
capacity and 28% capacity factor to Diablo Canyon’s 2150MW capacity, which came
out only 8%.
Is Elias stupid, or are his readers?
Both?
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